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Inflation Continues to Cool in November Except for Housing

By Fan-Yu Kuo ,
Economist at National Association of Home Builders
December 13th, 2022

Consumer prices in November saw the smallest year-over-year gain since December 2021. While still elevated, inflation
experienced the second month below an 8% annual growth rate since February 2022. However, the shelter index continued to rise at an accelerated pace and more than offset decreases in energy indexes. Shelter inflation will be primarily tempered in the future by increased housing supply.

As inflation appears to have peaked and continues to slow, this may ease pressure on the Fed to maintain a more aggressive monetary policy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, following an increase of 0.4% in October. The price index for a broad set of energy sources fell by 1.6% in November as the gasoline index (-2.0%), the natural gas index (-3.5%), and the electricity index (-0.2%) all declined.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the “core” CPI increased by 0.2% in November, following an increase of 0.3% in October. This is the smallest monthly increase since August 2021. Meanwhile, the food index increased by 0.5% in November, with the food index at home also rising 0.5%.


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8 Tips for Hiring a Contractor

By Dennis Sweeney,
Executive Vice President HBA of Rockford

1. Check out a contractor’s work and their references.

Talk to people who own homes built or remodeled by the builder. Word of mouth is also important. Talk to people in your church, service clubs, etc. ask if they have had a similar project completed to their satisfaction and who they hired. Remember there is a difference between knowing someone who does work, and, having that work satisfactorily done.

2. Check insurance and license information.

Ask the builder what kind of insurance they carry, including liability and workers’ compensation, ask for their certificate of insurance and verify with the insurance company that the policy is still in effect. This is important if you already own the property being built on or being remodeled. Building contractors are not licensed in Illinois; electrical contractors are licensed in Rockford; plumbers and roofers are licensed by the State of Illinois.

3. Know who will be working on your house.

Find out who will be in charge on the job site and meet with them before the job starts. Find out which subcontractors will be on the job. Ask how long they have worked with the builder.

4. Establish good communication

The builder should be available to answer questions before, during, and after construction. Ask the builder how you get in touch with them day or night and the best time to contact.

5. Demand thorough written bids and contracts.

Each bid should specify the materials involved, and, the cost to complete major phases of the project corresponding to project payouts. Compare the bids based on what each offers in terms of material quality – not just the price. A builder should be able to explain to you why a bid is higher or lower than another. Make sure you understand the contract; pay a lawyer to review it if you have reservations. Any changes to the contract should be in writing, dated and initialed, by you and the contractor.

6. Set up a schedule of payments based on stages of completion.

This should be part of the contract. If you have a mortgage, then the title company or mortgage company can make these payments for you and verify that the work has been completed. If it is a remodeling project that you are paying for withhold final payment until after the final building inspections are completed and the terms of the contract have been fulfilled.

7. Make sure all permits are obtained and a building inspector approves the final project.

The contract should specify that the contractor is responsible for obtaining all necessary building permits. Building inspectors work for the property owners and with the builders to protect the health, safety, and welfare of the home owner and the community. Building permits and inspections are your insurance policy that the project is built to the standard established in the building code.

8. Find out what service the builder provides after construction ends.

Read the contract warranty language. Ask the builder how you properly document warranty service requests to the company, and, the policy for responding to your request. Find out who will do the warranty repairs. In the real world, things will happen that need to be fixed. It’s how and when they are fixed that is important.

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Obsolete Starter Homes

Starter Homes are Obsolete Due to New Home Fees and Regulations

By Dennis Sweeney, Executive Vice President HBA of Rockford

Recently there was an article in the New York Times, “Whatever Happened To The Starter Home?” I can answer that in one word, government, at every level.

Regulations imposed by all levels of government account for $93,870 or 23.8% of the current average sales price ($397,300) of a new single-family home, according to a study by NAHB published in May, 2021. That’s a national figure. A local builder shared with me that his upfront direct local fees to build a new house in a popular subdivision in this market were $23,000 before he started building. That doesn’t include the hidden costs that result from state and national land development and construction mandates.

So don’t buy a new house. Buy an existing one, like a starter home. The problem is that, as the price for new homes is inflated by regulations, the cost of existing homes is indirectly inflated by these regulations. The shift in demand for existing homes increases
their price.

The Rockford market used to be a great starter home
market because new homes were affordable too. The “Rockford Ranch” was and still is a popular floor plan, but now, at not-so-affordable a price as it used to be. The cost of an existing lot, the starting point for new home costs, hasn’t gone up. There are lots available all over Winnebago and Boone Counties and many available at a deep discount if you can afford to build a new home on it.